Copper Prices Center Rises Again, Downstream Consumption Weakens Significantly, Premiums Fall [SMM Shanghai Spot Copper]

SMM December 12:

Today, SMM #1 copper cathode spot prices against the current month 2512 contract were quoted at a discount of 70 yuan/mt to a premium of 30 yuan/mt, with the average price quoted at a discount of 20 yuan/mt, down 25 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; the SMM #1 copper cathode price ranged from 93,330 to 93,860 yuan/mt. In the morning session, SHFE copper rose from 93,500 yuan/mt to above 93,700 yuan/mt, with the inter-month spread showing a contango of 100-50 yuan/mt, and the import loss for the current month SHFE copper contract expanded to around 1,500 yuan/mt.

Intraday procurement sentiment continued to decline, as higher copper prices increasingly suppressed downstream demand, while market sales sentiment remained, but prices were forced lower. In the morning, suppliers directly quoted at a discount, with some cargoes starting to be quoted against the SHFE copper 2601 contract. During the first trading session, transactions were concluded at a discount of 60 to 20 yuan/mt, with high-quality copper showing a small premium, but demand weakened. In the second session, market transactions continued to weaken, with some deliverable cargoes being purchased by traders for delivery to warehouses, and the discount of 70 yuan/mt basically stabilized.

Looking ahead to next week, as trading for the SHFE copper 2601 contract begins, the 2025 copper cathode long-term contracts will basically conclude, and negotiations for 2026 long-term contracts will start. Trading activity in the spot market is also expected to decrease. The market is expected to enter a phase of purely spot order trading, with price fluctuations likely to amplify. Premiums and discounts against the SHFE copper 2601 contract are expected to remain at a discount next week.